What are the local risks?
Flu pandemic
An influenza (flu) pandemic is a worldwide event in which many people are infected with a flu virus in a short time. The World Health Organisation considers an outbreak to be a pandemic when:
- the infectious agent is new to the population so that there is no natural immunity to it
- the agent infects humans
- it spreads easily and sustainably amongst humans.
Unlike a normal flu virus, which has a 'season' (October to May), a flu pandemic can occur at any time. The outbreak may last about three months with further outbreaks coming in waves, weeks or months after the initial onset.
Based on previous pandemic evidence, at least 20% of the population are likely to get the virus during an outbreak. Such numbers will seriously affect the ability of health, emergency services and business to cope with those who are absent because they are ill, voluntarily quarantined or looking after family members who are ill.
Flu is mainly spread by droplet infection produced when an infected person speaks, coughs or sneezes; it may also be spread by hand or face contact after touching a droplet-contaminated person or surface.
No vaccine for the pandemic virus will be available for at least six months after the original outbreak. Given that the original outbreak may last about three months, this would mean that health services in the UK would not have the vaccine during the first outbreak. Antiviral drugs, which may help to reduce the effect of the virus, are stockpiled. Health care workers would be vaccinated first, followed by essential service providers. Current vaccination for flu viruses will not protect against a pandemic virus but will offset the danger of dual infection with common and pandemic flu.
Case study: Spanish Flu
This flu pandemic killed between 25 and 50 million people worldwide between 1918 and 1919 – more deaths in the first six months than the five years of the First World War. The virus is part of the Influenza A class, subtype H1N1. Although popularly called Spanish Flu, it did not originate in Spain, but Spain had some of the worst outbreaks with 8 million people infected in the first wave. Worldwide, 20% of the population was infected and between 2.5 and 3% died. In Britain, 200,000 people died from the flu. The flu affected every inhabited area except for an island at the mouth of the river Amazon in Brazil. Young people (aged 15-34) were most affected, untypical for a flu virus.
Sources: Wikipedia (2006) Spanish Flu. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_Flu and Public Health Image Laboratory (2006) Influenza. http://phil.cdc.gov.
For more information, see the Department of Health website at www.doh.gov.uk.
Like other local, regional and national organisations, we consider there is a serious risk of a flu pandemic or epidemic, based on current information and case studies. As a result, preparing for a flu-type emergency is one of our top priorities in emergency planning. We have already consulted, planned and tested our response to a flu outbreak, and will continue to review and exercise plans regularly.
You can find information on several government websites, such as the Preparing for Emergencies website at www.pfe.gov.uk and the Health Protection Agency at www.hpa.org.uk. Here you can also find practical measures you can take to help reduce the spread of any flu virus by following basic hygiene. The Department of Health’s website has a downloadable leaflet on key facts and advice that you can use when you have flu.
Pandemic flu is expected to have a major effect on businesses, with up to 20% of employees off sick and another 20% off to care for the sick. Companies should plan to make enough information available so that all employees are aware of what may happen in their organisation; for example, some employees may have to take on new roles or work from home.
Difference between human flu and avian flu
Avian flu is primarily a flu infection in birds, presenting a risk to wild birds and poultry livestock. This should not be confused with human flu pandemics, which affect our health. They present two different risks that the Community Risk Register categorises as 'Animal Health' for avian flu and 'Human Health' for human flu.
For more details on avian influenza, visit www.defra.gov.uk/animalh/diseases/notifiable/disease/ai/index.htm.
To learn more about local plans in place respond to this hazard click here.
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